Smartphone market improving in 2024, Chinese brands are growing

After two years of contraction, the global market for new smartphones will grow again in 2024. The pent-up demand reduced. While market leaders Samsung and Apple are losing share, Chinese providers are growing strongly. Market observers IDC and Counterpoint Research agree. However, their estimates differ in details. IDC sees the market growing by 6.4 percent to 1.24 billion units, Counterpoint sees a four percent increase (without full details in public report).

Advertisement

Before the ban: China reportedly considering selling TikTok’s US business to Elon Musk

While Counterpoint views Samsung as the market leader in terms of smartphones delivered over the years, IDC views Apple as the market leader. However, distances are in the points per mile range. However, IDC had to correct its forecast for a decline. It was already clear that the smartphone market would return to growth in 2024 thanks to Android. However, IDC believed Apple could achieve year-end sales growth of four units per thousand. Now IDC saysThat Apple will sell 232 million iPhones in 2024, nine per thousand fewer than in 2023. counterpoint estimate Even a two percent reduction.

For Samsung, Counterpoint saw a one percent increase, but IDC saw a 1.4 percent decline to 223 million units. But this does not mean that the smartphone business of both the companies has shrunk. Counterpoint and IDC both describe a general trend toward “premiumization”, i.e. more expensive smartphones. Average selling prices have increased accordingly.

In China, more than half of all iPhones shipped last year were ultra-premium versions (Pro or Pro Max), Counterpoint reports. Other brands are also selling more devices at close to four-digit prices. Of course, this growth is not driven by piles of money hidden under mattresses, but by pumping. More and more loans are being given for mobile phones in less wealthy countries, with hidden financing through higher mobile phone tariffs becoming prevalent in richer countries. Leasing tariffs are also increasing rapidly, where the customer has to return the cell phone in good condition after an agreed period. The network operator can sell it another time.

Chinese brands are successful

At number three in the global market is Xiaomi, which, according to Counterpoint, was able to bring twelve percent more smartphones to the market in 2024. According to IDC, Xiaomi’s sales also increased by 15.4 percent to 169 million units. Oppo is tied for fourth place (105 million units) with either Chinese manufacturer Transion (IDC), which has grown by 12.7 percent, or Vivo (+9% according to Counterpoint).

It is undeniable that Chinese brands are the winners of 2024, and especially of the Christmas quarter with strong sales: “Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, Honor, Huawei, Lenovo, Realme, Transcen, TCL and ZTE jointly reached a historic milestone “The largest volume in a quarter and 56 percent of global smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter,” reports IDC manager Francisco Geronimo. “While their core markets remain China and (the rest of) Asia, these brands are expanding rapidly into Europe and Africa,” thanks to their low- and mid-range devices. With one exception: Huawei More Can focus on expensive cell phones and install its own operating system, HarmonyOS. The company is so strong in China that it can now even forego compatibility with Android apps on HarmonyOS.

Market share (volume) in 2024 according to IDC

, IDC ranks providers equally if their estimate is only one per mile point.

IDC expects further growth to 2025, but it will likely be modest – not least because of the tariffs announced by Donald Trump.

Market share (volumes) in 2024 according to Counterpoint Research

For 2025, Counterpoint expects four percent more smartphones to be delivered. Due to continuously rising average prices, sales are expected to double.

(ds)

Before the ban: China reportedly considering selling TikTok’s US business to Elon Musk