Bundestag Election: CDU/CSU clearly front, AFD, FDP trembles in second place

As per the first forecasts of polling stations, the CDU and CSU’s union won the Bundestag election with about 29 percent, AFD comes second with a good 20 percent. Parties of traffic light coalition have all lost, especially SPD. From the first forecasts and ZDF of ARD, social Democrats come about 16 percent, Greens up to 12 or 13.5 percent. FDP is therefore around five percent, it is not yet clear that it takes it back to Bundestag. The Left will probably reach about 9 percent, BSW is also not clear whether the five percent obstacle is being taken or not.

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At the moment it is still not clear which alliances are possible in the next Bundestag. It also depends on whether FDP and BSW make it in Bundestag. CDU boss Frederick Merz has excluded a merger with AFD, classified as right -wing extremist AFD. If FDP and BSW sit in Bundestag, they will have to look for two coalition partners, even a Grand alliance will not be sufficient. But triple alliances are complex, see unsuccessful traffic lights. A union alliance with SPD and FDP will be comprehensible. An alternative would be an alliance of union, SPD and greens – however, CSU rejected a alliance with greens before the election.

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New voting rights in terms of initial Bundestag election

For the first time, a new voting rights comes into the game in the election, which was fixed in early 2023. This ensures that the new Bundestag becomes much smaller than the previous one. If they have more than 733 MPs, their number is now limited to 630. For this, the mandate of the so -called overhang and equality is abolished, which often leads to a very increased parliament in recent years. This time, the candidates selected directly go into Bundestag by only the first vote if their party also has enough other votes. Otherwise, their constituencies are not represented with MPs directly elected in Parliament.

Advanced Bundestag election was necessary after the traffic light alliance of SPD, Greens and FDP, which existed since 2021, failed in autumn. After the FDP left the government, he had no majority. On 16 December, Olaf Sholaz asked the trust question and lost it as expected. He has cleared the way for the new election. The Bundestag was then dissolved by the Federal President on 27 December. Germans were not invited to the regular basis.

(MHO)